Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHI went from 48% to 48% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals2
- Zach WerenskiAssists2
- Kent JohnsonPoints3
Flyers- Trevor ZegrasGoals1
- Trevor ZegrasAssists1
- Trevor ZegrasPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:22Kent Johnson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (2), Zach Werenski (8)4–3
- P319:49Jamie Drysdale Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tyson Foerster (1), Trevor Zegras (8)3–3
- P315:04Trevor Zegras Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (3), Travis Sanheim (4)3–2
- P29:59Noah Cates Goal (1) Poke, assists: Porter Martone (3), Oliver Bonk (5)3–1
- P113:44Denton Mateychuk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (1), Matthew Knies (3)3–0
- P112:54Kent Johnson Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Zach Werenski (7), Valeri Nichushkin (5)2–0
- P110:58Adam Fantilli Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (4), Jake Christiansen (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:58Adam Fantilli Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (4), Jake Christiansen (1)CBJ 1 – 0 PHI · CBJ 52% → 67% +16CBJ 52% → 67%+16 pts
- P112:54Kent Johnson Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Zach Werenski (7), Valeri Nichushkin (5)CBJ 2 – 0 PHI · CBJ 68% → 81% +13CBJ 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P315:04Trevor Zegras Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (3), Travis Sanheim (4)CBJ 3 – 2 PHI · PHI <1% → 10% +9PHI <1% → 10%+9 pts
- P319:49Jamie Drysdale Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tyson Foerster (1), Trevor Zegras (8)CBJ 3 – 3 PHI · PHI <1% → 50% +50PHI <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:22Kent Johnson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (2), Zach Werenski (8)CBJ 4 – 3 PHI · CBJ 50% → 96% +46CBJ 50% → 96%+46 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Blue Jackets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 52%
- ML CBJ -120 / PHI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- CBJ: Elo 45.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 2.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +10 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +28 Elo | PHI 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 1.832nd of 32 |
| 20th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −1.430th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 41.9%30th of 32 |
| 20th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 90.2%7th of 32 |
| 31st of 320–2 | Road vs home | 2–529th of 32 |
| 8th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 15251st of 32 |
| 18th of 321490 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–6 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 3–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 7–4 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.