Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CAR went from 66% to 63% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Elias LindholmAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- William CarrierAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:19Sebastian Aho Goal (8) Backhand, assists: William Carrier (8), Andrei Svechnikov (7)1–2
- P119:08Jackson Blake Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (7)1–1
- P11:31Pavel Zacha Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (7), David Pastrnak (11)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:31Pavel Zacha Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (7), David Pastrnak (11)BOS 1 – 0 CAR · BOS 37% → 52% +15BOS 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P119:08Jackson Blake Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (7)BOS 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 43% → 61% +17CAR 43% → 61%+17 pts
- P310:19Sebastian Aho Goal (8) Backhand, assists: William Carrier (8), Andrei Svechnikov (7)BOS 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 55% → 85% +30CAR 55% → 85%+30 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hurricanes 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 63%
- ML BOS +160 / CAR -192
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.5%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -171
- BOS +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.6 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +96 Elo | CAR 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 65.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.94th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 2.54th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.8 | Margin | +1.42nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.5% | Shot share | 60.2%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.5% | Save percentage | 89.0%17th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–2 | Road vs home | 2–219th of 32 |
| 24th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 147932nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321529 | Elo rating | 15941st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–2 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–0 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–6 CAR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.