Winnipeg Jets at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
FLA went from 65% to 66% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Morgan BarronGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints1
Panthers- Anton LundellGoals3
- Seth JonesAssists2
- Anton LundellPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:21Anton Lundell Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (2)2–5
- P313:33Anton Lundell Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lars Eller (6), Eetu Luostarinen (1)2–4
- P38:46Morgan Barron Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (6), Dylan DeMelo (3)2–3
- P215:24Seth Jones Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (5)1–3
- P29:51Kyle Connor Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (10), Neal Pionk (7)1–2
- P22:38Anton Lundell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (16)0–2
- P118:15Sam Reinhart Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (4), Seth Jones (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:15Sam Reinhart Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (4), Seth Jones (15)WPG 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 64% → 79% +15FLA 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P22:38Anton Lundell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (16)WPG 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 79% → 90% +11FLA 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P29:51Kyle Connor Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (10), Neal Pionk (7)WPG 1 – 2 FLA · WPG 9% → 21% +12WPG 9% → 21%+12 pts
- P215:24Seth Jones Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (5)WPG 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 80% → 92% +12FLA 80% → 92%+12 pts
- P38:46Morgan Barron Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (6), Dylan DeMelo (3)WPG 2 – 3 FLA · WPG 3% → 15% +12WPG 3% → 15%+12 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Panthers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 66%
- ML WPG +185 / FLA -225
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 63.7%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- FLA -197
- WPG +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 3.7 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +3 | WPG: Nico Daws: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · FLA: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +97 Elo | FLA 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 63.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.216th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 53.8%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 88.8%21st of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321517 | Opponent Elo | 148727th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321476 | Elo rating | 151114th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–6 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–9 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–3 FLA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.