Florida Panthers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
WPG went from 48% to 46% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals2
- Matthew TkachukAssists4
- Matthew TkachukPoints4
Jets- Adam LowryGoals1
- Adam LowryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:10Brady Tkachuk Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (16), Niko Mikkola (2)5–1
- P213:14Sam Reinhart Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (7), Matthew Tkachuk (15)4–1
- P212:27Adam Lowry Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: none3–1
- P110:18Carter Verhaeghe Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (14), Seth Jones (14)3–0
- P18:42Niko Mikkola Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (13), Matthew Tkachuk (13)2–0
- P17:27Carter Verhaeghe Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (6), Seth Jones (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:27Carter Verhaeghe Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (6), Seth Jones (12)FLA 1 – 0 WPG · FLA 54% → 69% +15FLA 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P18:42Niko Mikkola Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (13), Matthew Tkachuk (13)FLA 2 – 0 WPG · FLA 69% → 81% +12FLA 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P110:18Carter Verhaeghe Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (14), Seth Jones (14)FLA 3 – 0 WPG · FLA 82% → 90% +9FLA 82% → 90%+9 pts
- P212:27Adam Lowry Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: noneFLA 3 – 1 WPG · WPG 5% → 13% +8WPG 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P213:14Sam Reinhart Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (7), Matthew Tkachuk (15)FLA 4 – 1 WPG · FLA 88% → 96% +8FLA 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Panthers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 54%
- ML FLA -130 / WPG +110
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- FLA: Elo 48.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -119
- WPG +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.4 – 3.1 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | FLA: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Brad Marchand |
| Elo ratings | WPG +13 Elo | WPG 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.423rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 48.2%23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%5th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 13th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 2–428th of 32 |
| 26th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 15156th of 32 |
| 14th of 321505 | Elo rating | 148420th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–8 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–4 WPG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.