Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
TB went from 69% to 68% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, October 28 at 2:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Neal PionkGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists3
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Lightning- Pontus HolmbergGoals1
- Pontus HolmbergAssists3
- Pontus HolmbergPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:29Pontus Holmberg Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (4), Brandon Hagel (8)4–6
- P317:12Kyle Connor Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (9), Dylan Samberg (4)4–5
- P38:50Neal Pionk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (5), Kyle Connor (4)3–5
- P37:00Dylan Samberg Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Cole Perfetti (5), Mark Scheifele (8)2–5
- P219:03Brandon Hagel Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (3), Pontus Holmberg (6)1–5
- P218:07John Carlson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (5), Brandon Hagel (7)1–4
- P215:56Anthony Cirelli Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Pontus Holmberg (4), Gage Goncalves (2)1–3
- P29:43Conor Geekie Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Dominic James (2), Jeff Viel (1)1–2
- P117:45Neal Pionk Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (4), Mark Scheifele (7)1–1
- P12:20Brayden Point Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (11), Jake Guentzel (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:20Brayden Point Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (11), Jake Guentzel (6)WPG 0 – 1 TB · TB 67% → 79% +12TB 67% → 79%+12 pts
- P117:45Neal Pionk Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (4), Mark Scheifele (7)WPG 1 – 1 TB · WPG 21% → 35% +14WPG 21% → 35%+14 pts
- P29:43Conor Geekie Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Dominic James (2), Jeff Viel (1)WPG 1 – 2 TB · TB 63% → 80% +17TB 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P215:56Anthony Cirelli Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Pontus Holmberg (4), Gage Goncalves (2)WPG 1 – 3 TB · TB 81% → 93% +12TB 81% → 93%+12 pts
- P218:07John Carlson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (5), Brandon Hagel (7)WPG 1 – 4 TB · TB 93% → 98% +5TB 93% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lightning 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 68%
- ML WPG +195 / TB -238
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TB: Elo 65.3%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -208
- WPG +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.2 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +5 | WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −5 | Key absences: Zemgus Girgensons, Brandon Hagel |
| Elo ratings | TB +110 Elo | TB 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 68.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.510th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 55.4%5th of 32 |
| 9th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.4%27th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 15th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
| 6th of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321479 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–5 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–9 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–2 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.