Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DAL went from 59% to 59% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, October 28 at 2:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:12Phillip Danault Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (2)5–2
- P28:52Jamie Benn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (10), Wyatt Johnston (7)4–2
- P26:11Alex Newhook Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (4), Noah Dobson (5)4–1
- P116:32Cole Caufield Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Engstrom (1), Juraj Slafkovský (7)3–1
- P116:05Alex Newhook Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Noah Dobson (4), Lane Hutson (8)2–1
- P112:53Wyatt Johnston Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (9), Miro Heiskanen (6)1–1
- P17:24Cole Caufield Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (4), Alexandre Carrier (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:24Cole Caufield Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (4), Alexandre Carrier (5)MTL 1 – 0 DAL · MTL 41% → 57% +15MTL 41% → 57%+15 pts
- P112:53Wyatt Johnston Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (9), Miro Heiskanen (6)MTL 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 42% → 58% +16DAL 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P116:05Alex Newhook Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Noah Dobson (4), Lane Hutson (8)MTL 2 – 1 DAL · MTL 42% → 59% +17MTL 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P116:32Cole Caufield Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Engstrom (1), Juraj Slafkovský (7)MTL 3 – 1 DAL · MTL 59% → 74% +15MTL 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P26:11Alex Newhook Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (4), Noah Dobson (5)MTL 4 – 1 DAL · MTL 79% → 90% +11MTL 79% → 90%+11 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Stars 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 59%
- ML MTL +136 / DAL -162
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -146
- MTL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +3 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −6 | — | Key absences: Nick Suzuki |
| Elo ratings | DAL +67 Elo | DAL 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.11st of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.77th of 32 |
| 14th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 54.8%6th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 91.7%2nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–2 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 32 |
| 24th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 32 |
| 7th of 321528 | Elo rating | 15405th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–8 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 2–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–3 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.