Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MTL went from 62% to 53% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints3
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals2
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Josh AndersonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:49Sidney Crosby Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (13)4–5
- P213:06Josh Anderson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (10), Jake Evans (3)3–5
- P23:45Rickard Rakell Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (12)3–4
- P22:21Chris Kreider Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Arber Xhekaj (1), Josh Anderson (3)2–4
- P21:54Alexandre Texier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (9), Phillip Danault (5)2–3
- P17:28Tommy Novak Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Rickard Rakell (4), Sidney Crosby (6)2–2
- P13:05Josh Anderson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (5)1–2
- P12:41Oliver Kapanen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Beck (2), Florian Xhekaj (1)1–1
- P12:08Erik Karlsson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (5), Tommy Novak (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:08Erik Karlsson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (5), Tommy Novak (6)PIT 1 – 0 MTL · PIT 47% → 61% +15PIT 47% → 61%+15 pts
- P12:41Oliver Kapanen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Beck (2), Florian Xhekaj (1)PIT 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 38% → 53% +15MTL 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P17:28Tommy Novak Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Rickard Rakell (4), Sidney Crosby (6)PIT 2 – 2 MTL · PIT 32% → 47% +15PIT 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P21:54Alexandre Texier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (9), Phillip Danault (5)PIT 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 53% → 70% +17MTL 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P213:06Josh Anderson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (10), Jake Evans (3)PIT 3 – 5 MTL · MTL 73% → 87% +15MTL 73% → 87%+15 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 53%
- ML PIT +105 / MTL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.7 pts
- MTL: Elo 63.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +14 | PIT: Sergei Murashov: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −9 | Key absences: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson, Bryan Rust |
| Elo ratings | MTL +99 Elo | MTL 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 50.1%12th of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%6th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 3–319th of 32 |
| 10th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 17th of 321495 | Elo rating | 15346th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–6 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 8–2 MTL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.