Utah Mammoth at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PIT went from 45% to 46% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, October 28 at 2:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Logan CooleyGoals3
- Vincent TrocheckAssists1
- Logan CooleyPoints3
Penguins- Ben KindelGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Ben KindelPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:27Mikhail Sergachev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (8)4–3
- P319:59Logan Cooley Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Vincent Trocheck (5), Clayton Keller (12)3–3
- P319:35Ben Kindel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (5), Egor Chinakhov (2)2–3
- P310:59Rickard Rakell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (6)2–2
- P28:38Erik Karlsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (3), Evgeni Malkin (4)2–1
- P114:11Logan Cooley Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (4), Andrew Peeke (4)2–0
- P14:40Logan Cooley Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:40Logan Cooley Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneUTA 1 – 0 PIT · UTA 54% → 69% +14UTA 54% → 69%+14 pts
- P310:59Rickard Rakell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (6)UTA 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 16% → 48% +32PIT 16% → 48%+32 pts
- P319:35Ben Kindel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (5), Egor Chinakhov (2)UTA 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 50% → >99% +50PIT 50% → >99%+50 pts
- P319:59Logan Cooley Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Vincent Trocheck (5), Clayton Keller (12)UTA 3 – 3 PIT · UTA 0% → 50% +50UTA 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT3:27Mikhail Sergachev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (8)UTA 4 – 3 PIT · UTA 51% → 99% +48UTA 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Mammoth 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 54%
- ML UTA -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- UTA: Elo 46.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.4 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −5 | Key absences: Bryan Rust, John Marino, Evgeni Malkin |
| Elo ratings | PIT +26 Elo | PIT 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.3 | Margin | 0.019th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3255.6% | Shot share | 50.2%12th of 32 |
| 31st of 3286.8% | Save percentage | 88.8%23rd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 5th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 32 |
| 11th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 32 |
| 13th of 321512 | Elo rating | 149817th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–8 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–2 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.
