Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
TOR went from 47% to 44% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists3
- Clayton KellerPoints3
Maple Leafs- Jack RoslovicGoals2
- Auston MatthewsAssists2
- Jack RoslovicPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:12Nick Schmaltz Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Clayton Keller (17), Mikhail Sergachev (14)3–2
- P39:05Jack Roslovic Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Auston Matthews (15), Morgan Rielly (12)2–2
- P213:42Andrew Peeke Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (16), Anders Lee (4)2–1
- P210:20Jack Roslovic Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (14)1–1
- P119:47Dylan Guenther Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (13), Clayton Keller (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:47Dylan Guenther Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (13), Clayton Keller (15)UTA 1 – 0 TOR · UTA 55% → 72% +17UTA 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P210:20Jack Roslovic Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (14)UTA 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 26% → 46% +19TOR 26% → 46%+19 pts
- P213:42Andrew Peeke Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (16), Anders Lee (4)UTA 2 – 1 TOR · UTA 54% → 74% +20UTA 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P39:05Jack Roslovic Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Auston Matthews (15), Morgan Rielly (12)UTA 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 18% → 47% +30TOR 18% → 47%+30 pts
- P313:12Nick Schmaltz Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Clayton Keller (17), Mikhail Sergachev (14)UTA 3 – 2 TOR · UTA 52% → 87% +35UTA 52% → 87%+35 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Mammoth 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 56%
- ML UTA -142 / TOR +120
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- UTA: Elo 48.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -129
- TOR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −4 | UTA: Sebastian Cossa: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −6 | Key absences: John Tavares, Kirill Marchenko, John Marino |
| Elo ratings | TOR +9 Elo | TOR 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.84th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3255.0% | Shot share | 49.0%18th of 32 |
| 31st of 3286.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%13th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 32 |
| 6th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 32 |
| 13th of 321510 | Elo rating | 148320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–10 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 6–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 2–3 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.