Utah Mammoth at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHI went from 43% to 41% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Logan CooleyGoals1
- Nick SchmaltzAssists2
- Logan CooleyPoints2
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Jamie DrysdaleAssists3
- Jamie DrysdalePoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:26Cole Knuble Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (1), Jamie Drysdale (5)3–6
- P317:07Logan Cooley Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (9), Clayton Keller (14)3–5
- P316:00Mikhail Sergachev Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (8), Clayton Keller (13)2–5
- P35:35Oliver Bonk Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Cam York (1), Sean Couturier (4)1–5
- P31:02Christian Dvorak Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (4), Travis Sanheim (6)1–4
- P25:50Noah Cates Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (5), Jamie Drysdale (4)1–3
- P21:06Travis Konecny Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jamie Drysdale (3), Christian Dvorak (4)1–2
- P114:24Dmitri Simashev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (6), Logan Cooley (9)1–1
- P112:49Matvei Michkov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (3), Porter Martone (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:49Matvei Michkov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (3), Porter Martone (4)UTA 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 42% → 58% +16PHI 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P114:24Dmitri Simashev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (6), Logan Cooley (9)UTA 1 – 1 PHI · UTA 42% → 58% +17UTA 42% → 58%+17 pts
- P21:06Travis Konecny Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jamie Drysdale (3), Christian Dvorak (4)UTA 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 42% → 60% +18PHI 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P25:50Noah Cates Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (5), Jamie Drysdale (4)UTA 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 62% → 78% +16PHI 62% → 78%+16 pts
- P31:02Christian Dvorak Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (4), Travis Sanheim (6)UTA 1 – 4 PHI · PHI 88% → 97% +9PHI 88% → 97%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Mammoth 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 59%
- ML UTA -162 / PHI +136
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- UTA: Elo 48.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -146
- PHI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +9 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: John Marino |
| Elo ratings | PHI +8 Elo | PHI 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 1.932nd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −1.530th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3255.2% | Shot share | 43.7%30th of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.2% | Save percentage | 89.4%14th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 4th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 2–629th of 32 |
| 13th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15231st of 32 |
| 13th of 321514 | Elo rating | 147324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–9 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 4–0 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.
