Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
WSH went from 67% to 67% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals1
- Nick SeelerAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Capitals- Alex TuchGoals2
- Dylan StromeAssists3
- Dylan StromePoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:36Alex Tuch Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (5)2–5
- P312:51Jordan Kyrou Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (9), Jack St. Ivany (2)2–4
- P39:44Matvei Michkov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (5), Trevor Zegras (9)2–3
- P216:47Aliaksei Protas Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (1), Pierre-Luc Dubois (4)1–3
- P27:14Jordan Kyrou Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (8), Jakob Chychrun (7)1–2
- P24:36Sean Couturier Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (4)1–1
- P11:50Alex Tuch Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (7), Jack St. Ivany (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:50Alex Tuch Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (7), Jack St. Ivany (1)PHI 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 67% → 79% +12WSH 67% → 79%+12 pts
- P24:36Sean Couturier Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (4)PHI 1 – 1 WSH · PHI 21% → 37% +16PHI 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P27:14Jordan Kyrou Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (8), Jakob Chychrun (7)PHI 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 63% → 79% +17WSH 63% → 79%+17 pts
- P216:47Aliaksei Protas Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (1), Pierre-Luc Dubois (4)PHI 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 80% → 93% +12WSH 80% → 93%+12 pts
- P39:44Matvei Michkov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (5), Trevor Zegras (9)PHI 2 – 3 WSH · PHI 3% → 14% +12PHI 3% → 14%+12 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Capitals 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 67%
- ML PHI +190 / WSH -230
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- WSH: Elo 67.5%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -202
- PHI +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +4 | PHI: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Vincent Desharnais |
| Elo ratings | WSH +127 Elo | WSH 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 69.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 321.9 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 32 |
| 30th of 3243.5% | Shot share | 49.2%17th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%12th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
| 1st of 321523 | Opponent Elo | 15232nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321476 | Elo rating | 152411th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–6 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–9 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–8 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.