Utah Mammoth at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MTL went from 52% to 47% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 4 at 11:31 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Logan CooleyGoals3
- Nick SchmaltzAssists2
- Logan CooleyPoints4
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:30Cole Caufield Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (13), Nick Suzuki (9)4–5
- P314:54Adam Engstrom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (4), Noah Dobson (8)4–4
- P37:14Nick Schmaltz Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (10), Dylan Guenther (6)4–3
- P31:09Kirby Dach Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (8), Lane Hutson (12)3–3
- P211:05Logan Cooley Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (11), Clayton Keller (18)3–2
- P117:10Arber Xhekaj Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (4), Alex Newhook (4)2–2
- P115:25Nick Suzuki Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (10), Noah Dobson (7)2–1
- P19:24Logan Cooley Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (10), Mikhail Sergachev (15)2–0
- P11:42Logan Cooley Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Nate Schmidt (3), Vincent Trocheck (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:05Logan Cooley Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (11), Clayton Keller (18)UTA 3 – 2 MTL · UTA 52% → 72% +20UTA 52% → 72%+20 pts
- P31:09Kirby Dach Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (8), Lane Hutson (12)UTA 3 – 3 MTL · MTL 25% → 49% +24MTL 25% → 49%+24 pts
- P37:14Nick Schmaltz Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (10), Dylan Guenther (6)UTA 4 – 3 MTL · UTA 51% → 79% +28UTA 51% → 79%+28 pts
- P314:54Adam Engstrom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (4), Noah Dobson (8)UTA 4 – 4 MTL · MTL 10% → 49% +39MTL 10% → 49%+39 pts
- OT0:30Cole Caufield Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (13), Nick Suzuki (9)UTA 4 – 5 MTL · MTL 49% → 91% +41MTL 49% → 91%+41 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Mammoth 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 53%
- ML UTA -122 / MTL +102
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- UTA: Elo 41.1%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- UTA -111
- MTL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.3 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +6 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −4 | Key absences: Mike Matheson, John Marino, Nick Suzuki |
| Elo ratings | MTL +62 Elo | MTL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.511th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3255.1% | Shot share | 48.5%22nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%9th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 32 |
| 13th of 321512 | Elo rating | 15327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–11 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–3 MTL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.
