New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
TOR went from 47% to 41% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals2
- Jesper BrattAssists2
- Timo MeierPoints2
Maple LeafsScoring summary
- P317:23Connor Brown Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (2)4–0
- P39:49Nico Hischier Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (16), Jesper Bratt (15)3–0
- P212:44Timo Meier Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (15), Jesper Bratt (14)2–0
- P28:28Timo Meier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (2), Nico Hischier (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:28Timo Meier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (2), Nico Hischier (5)NJ 1 – 0 TOR · NJ 57% → 75% +18NJ 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P212:44Timo Meier Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (15), Jesper Bratt (14)NJ 2 – 0 TOR · NJ 76% → 89% +13NJ 76% → 89%+13 pts
- P39:49Nico Hischier Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (16), Jesper Bratt (15)NJ 3 – 0 TOR · NJ 97% → >99% +3NJ 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P317:23Connor Brown Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (2)NJ 4 – 0 TOR · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Devils 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 59%
- ML NJ -162 / TOR +136
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 49.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -146
- TOR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.5 – 3.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | TOR and NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +6 | NJ: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Anthony Mantha |
| Elo ratings | TOR +5 Elo | TOR 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.610th of 32 |
| 7th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3257.7% | Shot share | 48.8%19th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.4%13th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 7th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 4–626th of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149816th of 32 |
| 13th of 321513 | Elo rating | 147724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–9 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–5 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 9.