New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NYI went from 45% to 44% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists1
- Jack HughesPoints2
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists2
- Simon HolmstromPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:18Jack Hughes Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (5)5–4
- P313:42Dougie Hamilton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (14), Luke Evangelista (6)4–4
- P36:08Luke Evangelista Goal (4) Batted, assists: Brett Pesce (7), Nico Hischier (4)3–4
- P211:54Victor Eklund Goal (5) Poke, assists: Tony DeAngelo (4), Brayden Schenn (7)2–4
- P25:08Simon Holmstrom Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (2), Bo Horvat (9)2–3
- P24:42Declan Chisholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (13), Arseny Gritsyuk (5)2–2
- P117:14Matthew Schaefer Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (8), Emil Heineman (6)1–2
- P115:23Evan Rodrigues Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (5)1–1
- P115:06Anthony Duclair Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (4), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:42Declan Chisholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (13), Arseny Gritsyuk (5)NJ 2 – 2 NYI · NJ 36% → 54% +19NJ 36% → 54%+19 pts
- P25:08Simon Holmstrom Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (2), Bo Horvat (9)NJ 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 46% → 64% +19NYI 46% → 64%+19 pts
- P36:08Luke Evangelista Goal (4) Batted, assists: Brett Pesce (7), Nico Hischier (4)NJ 3 – 4 NYI · NJ 7% → 25% +17NJ 7% → 25%+17 pts
- P313:42Dougie Hamilton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (14), Luke Evangelista (6)NJ 4 – 4 NYI · NJ 14% → 52% +38NJ 14% → 52%+38 pts
- OT1:18Jack Hughes Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (5)NJ 5 – 4 NYI · NJ 51% → 93% +42NJ 51% → 93%+42 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 50%
- Fair odds
- NJ -126
- NYI +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.3 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | NJ: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Matias Maccelli |
| Elo ratings | NYI +1 Elo | NYI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.9% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%4th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 32 |
| 10th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–9 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–8 NYI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 12.