Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NYI went from 38% to 40% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 4 at 11:31 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- William CarrierPoints2
Islanders- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists1
- Brayden SchennPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:09Jalen Chatfield Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none5–3
- P314:52William Carrier Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (9), Sebastian Aho (14)4–3
- P217:13Victor Eklund Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (6), Emil Heineman (5)3–3
- P26:44Andrei Svechnikov Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Sebastian Aho (13), William Carrier (9)3–2
- P25:44Brayden Schenn Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Victor Eklund (3), Matthew Kessel (2)2–2
- P23:40Mitchell Chaffee Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (11), Casey Cizikas (2)2–1
- P13:20Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jordan Martinook (6), Jalen Chatfield (4)2–0
- P10:57Logan Stankoven Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (14), K'Andre Miller (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:57Logan Stankoven Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (14), K'Andre Miller (4)CAR 1 – 0 NYI · CAR 60% → 73% +13CAR 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P25:44Brayden Schenn Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Victor Eklund (3), Matthew Kessel (2)CAR 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 25% → 42% +17NYI 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P26:44Andrei Svechnikov Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Sebastian Aho (13), William Carrier (9)CAR 3 – 2 NYI · CAR 57% → 75% +18CAR 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P217:13Victor Eklund Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (6), Emil Heineman (5)CAR 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 23% → 44% +21NYI 23% → 44%+21 pts
- P314:52William Carrier Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (9), Sebastian Aho (14)CAR 4 – 3 NYI · CAR 53% → 91% +38CAR 53% → 91%+38 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hurricanes 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 60%
- ML CAR -166 / NYI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 61.4%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -150
- NYI +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 2.5 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +2 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Matias Maccelli |
| Elo ratings | CAR +80 Elo | CAR 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.926th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 1st of 3259.6% | Shot share | 49.3%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 32 |
| 31st of 321482 | Opponent Elo | 149224th of 32 |
| 1st of 321594 | Elo rating | 148220th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | — | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 11–5 NYI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.