Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NSH went from 35% to 36% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Jackson BlakePoints1
Predators- Ross ColtonGoals1
- Filip ForsbergAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:19Ross Colton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (5), Jack Drury (2)1–4
- P35:40Adam Edstrom Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (15), Ross Colton (3)1–3
- P210:28Jackson Blake Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (10), Logan Stankoven (6)1–2
- P23:29Roman Josi Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (14)0–2
- P112:32Nick Perbix Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:32Nick Perbix Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (13)CAR 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 38% → 54% +16NSH 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P23:29Roman Josi Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (14)CAR 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 58% → 75% +17NSH 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P210:28Jackson Blake Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (10), Logan Stankoven (6)CAR 1 – 2 NSH · CAR 21% → 39% +18CAR 21% → 39%+18 pts
- P35:40Adam Edstrom Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (15), Ross Colton (3)CAR 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 72% → 91% +19NSH 72% → 91%+19 pts
- P319:19Ross Colton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (5), Jack Drury (2)CAR 1 – 4 NSH · NSH >99% → 100% +0NSH >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML CAR -198 / NSH +164
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -175
- NSH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.6 – 2.9 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1600 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −3 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +97 Elo | CAR 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 65.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.419th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.7 | Margin | −0.423rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3259.6% | Shot share | 47.7%26th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.1%15th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–2 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321482 | Opponent Elo | 15175th of 32 |
| 1st of 321600 | Elo rating | 147523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–8 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | — | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–3 NSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.