Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NSH went from 38% to 40% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- John CarlsonGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Predators- Reid SchaeferGoals1
- Nick PerbixAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Steven Stamkos Goal Backhand0–1
- P37:27Steven Stamkos Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (12), Ryan O'Reilly (8)4–4
- P33:31Conor Geekie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Viel (2)4–3
- P219:42Jayden Struble Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Wilsby (6), Filip Forsberg (11)3–3
- P23:23Victor Hedman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (14), Brayden Point (8)3–2
- P20:45Adam Edstrom Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (4), Nick Perbix (2)2–2
- P20:18Jake Guentzel Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (3), Nikita Kucherov (13)2–1
- P113:38John Carlson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (12), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (5)1–1
- P111:14Reid Schaefer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (4), Nick Perbix (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:38John Carlson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (12), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (5)TB 1 – 1 NSH · TB 43% → 59% +16TB 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P23:23Victor Hedman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (14), Brayden Point (8)TB 3 – 2 NSH · TB 58% → 75% +17TB 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P219:42Jayden Struble Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Wilsby (6), Filip Forsberg (11)TB 3 – 3 NSH · NSH 22% → 44% +22NSH 22% → 44%+22 pts
- P33:31Conor Geekie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Viel (2)TB 4 – 3 NSH · TB 55% → 80% +24TB 55% → 80%+24 pts
- P37:27Steven Stamkos Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (12), Ryan O'Reilly (8)TB 4 – 4 NSH · NSH 18% → 45% +27NSH 18% → 45%+27 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lightning 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML TB -170 / NSH +142
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- TB: Elo 57.1%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -152
- NSH +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 3.0 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −2 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −1 | — | Key absences: Zemgus Girgensons |
| Elo ratings | TB +50 Elo | TB 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.522nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3255.7% | Shot share | 47.0%27th of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 89.4%12th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–4 | Road vs home | 3–527th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15154th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321552 | Elo rating | 147226th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–5 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–1 NSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.