Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NSH went from 54% to 50% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, October 28 at 2:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Cole HutsonGoals2
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists2
- Cole HutsonPoints2
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals2
- Roman JosiAssists3
- Roman JosiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P310:09Alex Tuch Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (7), Jakob Chychrun (8)4–3
- P36:34Ross Colton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Edstrom (1), Roman Josi (14)3–3
- P213:46Cole Hutson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (4), Jack St. Ivany (4)3–2
- P29:09Filip Forsberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (13)2–2
- P24:15Boone Jenner Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (3), Martin Fehervary (3)2–1
- P116:13Cole Hutson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack St. Ivany (3), Pierre-Luc Dubois (6)1–1
- P112:48Filip Forsberg Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (7), Roman Josi (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:15Boone Jenner Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (3), Martin Fehervary (3)WSH 2 – 1 NSH · WSH 50% → 68% +18WSH 50% → 68%+18 pts
- P29:09Filip Forsberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (13)WSH 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 30% → 50% +19NSH 30% → 50%+19 pts
- P213:46Cole Hutson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (4), Jack St. Ivany (4)WSH 3 – 2 NSH · WSH 50% → 71% +21WSH 50% → 71%+21 pts
- P36:34Ross Colton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Edstrom (1), Roman Josi (14)WSH 3 – 3 NSH · NSH 22% → 50% +28NSH 22% → 50%+28 pts
- P310:09Alex Tuch Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (7), Jakob Chychrun (8)WSH 4 – 3 NSH · WSH 50% → 82% +32WSH 50% → 82%+32 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Capitals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML WSH -112 / NSH -108
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 45.5%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -102
- NSH +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −2 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Vincent Desharnais |
| Elo ratings | NSH +31 Elo | NSH 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 46.8%27th of 32 |
| 8th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%10th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 18th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–426th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 15146th of 32 |
| 10th of 321527 | Elo rating | 147525th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–6 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 NSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.