St. Louis Blues at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NJ went from 62% to 62% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 4 at 11:31 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Mason McTavishAssists1
- Philip BrobergPoints2
Devils- Anthony ManthaGoals2
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Anthony ManthaPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:26Jesper Bratt Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (7)4–5
- P314:54Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Connor McMichael (7)4–4
- P314:36Philip Broberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (5), Adam Jiricek (2)3–4
- P311:46Mason McTavish Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Barron (7), Colton Parayko (5)2–4
- P218:19Anthony Mantha Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Evan Rodrigues (4), Brett Pesce (6)1–4
- P218:00Jesper Boqvist Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (4), Anthony Mantha (4)1–3
- P216:04Robert Thomas Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (5), Philip Broberg (8)1–2
- P212:02Anthony Mantha Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (13), Jesper Bratt (12)0–2
- P17:34Luke Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (5), Jack Hughes (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:34Luke Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (5), Jack Hughes (12)STL 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 61% → 75% +14NJ 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P216:04Robert Thomas Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (5), Philip Broberg (8)STL 1 – 2 NJ · STL 9% → 22% +13STL 9% → 22%+13 pts
- P218:00Jesper Boqvist Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (4), Anthony Mantha (4)STL 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 79% → 92% +13NJ 79% → 92%+13 pts
- P314:54Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Connor McMichael (7)STL 4 – 4 NJ · STL 9% → 46% +37STL 9% → 46%+37 pts
- OT1:26Jesper Bratt Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (7)STL 4 – 5 NJ · NJ 53% → 94% +41NJ 53% → 94%+41 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Devils 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 62%
- ML STL +154 / NJ -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NJ: Elo 55.9%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -165
- STL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.4 – 3.1 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NJ: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +41 Elo | NJ 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.511th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 19th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 18th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 57.1%2nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.6%20th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 20th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 32 |
| 8th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 32 |
| 16th of 321502 | Elo rating | 150915th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–4 NJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.