St. Louis Blues at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NYR went from 55% to 52% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pius SuterGoals1
- Alexey ToropchenkoAssists1
- Pius SuterPoints1
Rangers- Adam FoxGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- Adam FoxPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:01Pius Suter Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (2), Theo Lindstein (2)1–3
- P317:59Eeli Tolvanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (8), Adam Fox (17)0–3
- P39:01Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (2), Will Cuylle (5)0–2
- P21:49Adam Fox Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (7), J.T. Miller (7)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:49Adam Fox Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (7), J.T. Miller (7)STL 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 52% → 69% +17NYR 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P39:01Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (2), Will Cuylle (5)STL 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 81% → 96% +15NYR 81% → 96%+15 pts
- P317:59Eeli Tolvanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (8), Adam Fox (17)STL 0 – 3 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:01Pius Suter Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (2), Theo Lindstein (2)STL 1 – 3 NYR · STL 0% → <1% +0STL 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 52%
- ML STL +100 / NYR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- NYR: Elo 49.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 2.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −9 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +5 Elo | STL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 48.8%19th of 32 |
| 8th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.6%9th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 6–24th of 32 |
| 8th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 15th of 321506 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–7 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–3 NYR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.