Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
STL went from 53% to 51% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, October 28 at 2:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- James HagensGoals1
- Casey MittelstadtAssists1
- James HagensPoints1
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:42Jake Neighbours Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Philip Broberg (6), Robert Thomas (7)1–4
- P212:08Robert Thomas Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Barron (5)1–3
- P25:17Philip Broberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (6), Dylan Holloway (8)1–2
- P115:43Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (5), Robert Thomas (6)1–1
- P15:28James Hagens Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:28James Hagens Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (4)BOS 1 – 0 STL · BOS 49% → 64% +15BOS 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P115:43Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (5), Robert Thomas (6)BOS 1 – 1 STL · STL 34% → 51% +17STL 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P25:17Philip Broberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (6), Dylan Holloway (8)BOS 1 – 2 STL · STL 51% → 69% +18STL 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P212:08Robert Thomas Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Barron (5)BOS 1 – 3 STL · STL 71% → 86% +15STL 71% → 86%+15 pts
- P312:42Jake Neighbours Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Philip Broberg (6), Robert Thomas (7)BOS 1 – 4 STL · STL 98% → >99% +2STL 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Blues 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML BOS -105 / STL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- STL: Elo 50.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.7 – 2.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Dillon Dube |
| Elo ratings | STL +6 Elo | STL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.6 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 50.2%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%12th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 6th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 3–319th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15128th of 32 |
| 9th of 321527 | Elo rating | 149916th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–2 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–0 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–2 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.