St. Louis Blues at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DET went from 52% to 52% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals1
- Jimmy SnuggerudAssists1
- Justin BarronPoints2
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- Lucas RaymondAssists1
- Lucas RaymondPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:15Aleksanteri Kaskimaki Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (1), Pius Suter (4)5–4
- P312:57Justin Barron Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (3)4–4
- P38:37Pavel Buchnevich Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (4)3–4
- P33:29Emmitt Finnie Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (9), Moritz Seider (8)2–4
- P219:32Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (8), Philip Broberg (7)2–3
- P213:14Lucas Raymond Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P20:41Keegan Kolesar Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Carter Mazur (2), Justin Faulk (4)1–2
- P18:13J.T. Compher Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (3)1–1
- P12:29Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Justin Barron (6), Dylan Holloway (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:41Keegan Kolesar Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Carter Mazur (2), Justin Faulk (4)STL 1 – 2 DET · DET 51% → 69% +17DET 51% → 69%+17 pts
- P219:32Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (8), Philip Broberg (7)STL 2 – 3 DET · STL 10% → 26% +16STL 10% → 26%+16 pts
- P33:29Emmitt Finnie Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (9), Moritz Seider (8)STL 2 – 4 DET · DET 76% → 92% +16DET 76% → 92%+16 pts
- P312:57Justin Barron Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (3)STL 4 – 4 DET · STL 14% → 49% +35STL 14% → 49%+35 pts
- P313:15Aleksanteri Kaskimaki Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (1), Pius Suter (4)STL 5 – 4 DET · STL 49% → 86% +36STL 49% → 86%+36 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Red Wings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML STL -102 / DET -118
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- DET: Elo 51.4%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -107
- STL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +1 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Dillon Dube |
| Elo ratings | DET +9 Elo | DET 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 54.3%8th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.3%16th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 32 |
| 8th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 147632nd of 32 |
| 16th of 321504 | Elo rating | 148221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–7 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–4 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.