Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DET went from 65% to 62% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, October 28 at 2:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Wyatt KaiserAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints1
Red Wings- Viktor ArvidssonGoals3
- Alex DeBrincatAssists2
- Viktor ArvidssonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:45Viktor Arvidsson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (4)1–4
- P315:26Viktor Arvidsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (9), J.T. Compher (3)1–3
- P31:09Lucas Raymond Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (7), Viktor Arvidsson (6)1–2
- P27:31Viktor Arvidsson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: William Wallinder (2), Alex DeBrincat (8)1–1
- P15:59Connor Bedard Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (4), Roman Kantserov (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:59Connor Bedard Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (4), Roman Kantserov (1)CHI 1 – 0 DET · CHI 39% → 54% +15CHI 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P27:31Viktor Arvidsson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: William Wallinder (2), Alex DeBrincat (8)CHI 1 – 1 DET · DET 39% → 59% +20DET 39% → 59%+20 pts
- P31:09Lucas Raymond Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (7), Viktor Arvidsson (6)CHI 1 – 2 DET · DET 57% → 79% +23DET 57% → 79%+23 pts
- P315:26Viktor Arvidsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (9), J.T. Compher (3)CHI 1 – 3 DET · DET 92% → >99% +8DET 92% → >99%+8 pts
- P316:45Viktor Arvidsson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (4)CHI 1 – 4 DET · DET >99% → >99% +0DET >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Red Wings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML CHI +150 / DET -180
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- DET: Elo 62.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -161
- CHI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +92 Elo | DET 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.2 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.5 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 31st of 3241.9% | Shot share | 53.7%9th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 88.9%20th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–4 | Road vs home | 3–425th of 32 |
| 5th of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 148132nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321417 | Elo rating | 147822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–5 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.