Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
TOR went from 42% to 42% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 9 at 10:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Gabriel LandeskogGoals2
- Cale MakarAssists2
- Gabriel LandeskogPoints2
Maple Leafs- Jack RoslovicGoals1
- Jack RoslovicAssists1
- Darren RaddyshPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:30Martin Necas Goal (10) Backhand, assists: none6–3
- P317:15Artturi Lehkonen Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (18), Devon Toews (12)5–3
- P35:02Gabriel Landeskog Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (10), Sam Malinski (8)4–3
- P34:11Jack Roslovic Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Easton Cowan (9), Darren Raddysh (11)3–3
- P219:31Easton Cowan Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Gavin McKenna (7), Nick Paul (5)3–2
- P23:31Devon Toews Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (2), Parker Kelly (5)3–1
- P117:26Gabriel Landeskog Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (4), Cale Makar (17)2–1
- P116:09Brock Nelson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: T.J. Hughes (6), Jaden Schwartz (6)1–1
- P13:33Darren Raddysh Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (17), Jack Roslovic (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:33Darren Raddysh Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (17), Jack Roslovic (11)COL 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 42% → 57% +15TOR 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P116:09Brock Nelson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: T.J. Hughes (6), Jaden Schwartz (6)COL 1 – 1 TOR · COL 40% → 57% +17COL 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P117:26Gabriel Landeskog Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (4), Cale Makar (17)COL 2 – 1 TOR · COL 57% → 73% +16COL 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P34:11Jack Roslovic Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Easton Cowan (9), Darren Raddysh (11)COL 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 21% → 46% +25TOR 21% → 46%+25 pts
- P35:02Gabriel Landeskog Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (10), Sam Malinski (8)COL 4 – 3 TOR · COL 54% → 80% +26COL 54% → 80%+26 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 58%
- ML COL -155 / TOR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- COL: Elo 59.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -140
- TOR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −4 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −2 | Key absences: Jack Roslovic |
| Elo ratings | COL +64 Elo | COL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.9 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 48.5%20th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.4%14th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 17th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 4–729th of 32 |
| 26th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321564 | Elo rating | 147226th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–7 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–5 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–4 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.