Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CHI went from 35% to 35% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Jaden SchwartzGoals2
- T.J. HughesAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Blackhawks- Wyatt KaiserGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Wyatt KaiserPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:38Devon Toews Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P219:49Jaden Schwartz Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (6), T.J. Hughes (4)4–2
- P213:38Nazem Kadri Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (13), Nathan MacKinnon (16)3–2
- P115:49Jaden Schwartz Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: T.J. Hughes (3), Devon Toews (10)2–2
- P115:23Nazem Kadri Goal (3) Poke, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (5), Brent Burns (6)1–2
- P17:05Roman Kantserov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (6)0–2
- P10:57Wyatt Kaiser Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:57Wyatt Kaiser Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (3)COL 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 33% → 47% +14CHI 33% → 47%+14 pts
- P17:05Roman Kantserov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (6)COL 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 49% → 64% +15CHI 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P115:23Nazem Kadri Goal (3) Poke, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (5), Brent Burns (6)COL 1 – 2 CHI · COL 32% → 48% +16COL 32% → 48%+16 pts
- P115:49Jaden Schwartz Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: T.J. Hughes (3), Devon Toews (10)COL 2 – 2 CHI · COL 48% → 65% +17COL 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P213:38Nazem Kadri Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (13), Nathan MacKinnon (16)COL 3 – 2 CHI · COL 61% → 80% +19COL 61% → 80%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 67%
- ML COL -230 / CHI +190
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- COL: Elo 65.6%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -202
- CHI +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 2.8 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +4 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +112 Elo | COL 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 65.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.2 | Goals scored | 2.231st of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.830th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.1 | Margin | −1.632nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 43.1%31st of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.4%23rd of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 32 |
| 21st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15137th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321568 | Elo rating | 141331st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–5 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | — |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 10–4 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–3 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.