Chicago Blackhawks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BOS went from 69% to 67% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Anton FrondellGoals2
- Connor BedardAssists1
- Anton FrondellPoints2
Bruins- Elias LindholmGoals1
- JJ PeterkaAssists2
- Charlie McAvoyPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:32Elias Lindholm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (7)4–5
- P319:48Morgan Geekie Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (6), JJ Peterka (7)4–4
- P313:06Mason Lohrei Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (6), Tanner Jeannot (3)4–3
- P312:20Connor Bedard Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan Donato (2), Roman Kantserov (2)4–2
- P39:38Ryan Greene Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (2)3–2
- P212:34Casey Mittelstadt Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: James Hagens (6)2–2
- P23:31Anton Frondell Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (4), Sam Rinzel (2)2–1
- P113:05David Pastrnak Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (6)1–1
- P16:04Anton Frondell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (8), Connor Bedard (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:31Anton Frondell Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (4), Sam Rinzel (2)CHI 2 – 1 BOS · CHI 37% → 55% +18CHI 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P212:34Casey Mittelstadt Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: James Hagens (6)CHI 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 40% → 62% +21BOS 40% → 62%+21 pts
- P39:38Ryan Greene Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (2)CHI 3 – 2 BOS · CHI 43% → 76% +33CHI 43% → 76%+33 pts
- P319:48Morgan Geekie Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (6), JJ Peterka (7)CHI 4 – 4 BOS · BOS <1% → 51% +51BOS <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT2:32Elias Lindholm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (7)CHI 4 – 5 BOS · BOS 54% → 97% +44BOS 54% → 97%+44 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bruins 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 67%
- ML CHI +190 / BOS -230
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 72.8%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -202
- CHI +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 3.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +10 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · BOS: Michael DiPietro: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +171 Elo | BOS 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.1 | Goals scored | 3.69th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.6 | Margin | +1.32nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3241.6% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 91.9%1st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–5 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 32 |
| 7th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 32 |
| 31st of 321414 | Elo rating | 152311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–7 | 11–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | — | 6–0 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–5 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.