Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
COL went from 78% to 76% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Zayne ParekhAssists1
- Joel FarabeePoints1
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals2
- Cale MakarAssists4
- Cale MakarPoints4
Scoring summary
- P34:09Artturi Lehkonen Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (12), Devon Toews (9)2–5
- P31:59Martin Pospisil Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (3), Zayne Parekh (4)2–4
- P210:50Joel Farabee Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (3)1–4
- P29:07Brock Nelson Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (4), Cale Makar (11)0–4
- P25:48Artturi Lehkonen Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (10), Devon Toews (8)0–3
- P22:37Martin Necas Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (9), Nathan MacKinnon (15)0–2
- P114:13Nathan MacKinnon Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (9), Martin Necas (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:13Nathan MacKinnon Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (9), Martin Necas (11)CGY 0 – 1 COL · COL 73% → 85% +12COL 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P22:37Martin Necas Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (9), Nathan MacKinnon (15)CGY 0 – 2 COL · COL 85% → 93% +8COL 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P25:48Artturi Lehkonen Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (10), Devon Toews (8)CGY 0 – 3 COL · COL 93% → 98% +4COL 93% → 98%+4 pts
- P31:59Martin Pospisil Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (3), Zayne Parekh (4)CGY 2 – 4 COL · CGY <1% → 4% +3CGY <1% → 4%+3 pts
- P34:09Artturi Lehkonen Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (12), Devon Toews (9)CGY 2 – 5 COL · COL 96% → >99% +3COL 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Avalanche 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- COL 76%
- ML CGY +300 / COL -380
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- COL: Elo 70.0%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -317
- CGY +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 4.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +18 | −5 | CGY: Arsenii Sergeev: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +147 Elo | COL 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 73.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 4.22nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.94th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 52.1%10th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 89.2%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
| 17th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 32 |
| 29th of 321460 | Elo rating | 15652nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–7 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 1–9 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.