Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CGY went from 53% to 49% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Mackie SamoskevichGoals1
- Mackie SamoskevichAssists1
- Mackie SamoskevichPoints2
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists3
- Matt CoronatoPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:14Ryan Strome Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (5), Martin Pospisil (3)2–6
- P30:39Matt Coronato Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (1)2–5
- P218:15Mackie Samoskevich Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (9), Berkly Catton (7)2–4
- P210:40Joel Farabee Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (2), Matt Coronato (11)1–4
- P28:43Matvei Gridin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (10), Matt Coronato (10)1–3
- P25:45Aydar Suniev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (5)1–2
- P111:34Freddy Gaudreau Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (4), Chandler Stephenson (10)1–1
- P12:32Morgan Frost Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (9), Matt Coronato (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:32Morgan Frost Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (9), Matt Coronato (9)SEA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 49% → 64% +15CGY 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P111:34Freddy Gaudreau Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (4), Chandler Stephenson (10)SEA 1 – 1 CGY · SEA 35% → 51% +16SEA 35% → 51%+16 pts
- P25:45Aydar Suniev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (5)SEA 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 49% → 68% +19CGY 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P28:43Matvei Gridin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (10), Matt Coronato (10)SEA 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 69% → 84% +15CGY 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P210:40Joel Farabee Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (2), Matt Coronato (11)SEA 1 – 4 CGY · CGY 85% → 94% +9CGY 85% → 94%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Kraken 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SEA -115 / CGY -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- CGY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.3 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −5 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Jared McCann |
| Elo ratings | CGY +15 Elo | CGY 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.830th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −1.429th of 32 |
| 29th of 3245.0% | Shot share | 48.5%21st of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 87.9%27th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 6th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 32 |
| 12th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321475 | Elo rating | 145529th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–5 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–3 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 8–5 CGY in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.