Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CBJ went from 46% to 47% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Cale MakarPoints2
Blue Jackets- Charlie CoyleGoals2
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints4
Scoring summary
- P311:21Charlie Coyle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (4), Damon Severson (4)2–7
- P216:35Nazem Kadri Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (18), Cale Makar (14)2–6
- P212:42Valeri Nichushkin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (4), Denton Mateychuk (2)1–6
- P212:03Charlie Coyle Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kent Johnson (6), Zach Werenski (12)1–5
- P27:20Cole Sillinger Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (11), Mathieu Olivier (3)1–4
- P24:19Jake Christiansen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (2), Charlie Coyle (10)1–3
- P110:57Cale Makar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (17), Sam Malinski (7)1–2
- P17:37Ivan Provorov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (1), Valeri Nichushkin (6)0–2
- P10:28Mathieu Olivier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:28Mathieu Olivier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (9)COL 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 47% → 61% +14CBJ 47% → 61%+14 pts
- P17:37Ivan Provorov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (1), Valeri Nichushkin (6)COL 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 62% → 76% +14CBJ 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P110:57Cale Makar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (17), Sam Malinski (7)COL 1 – 2 CBJ · COL 23% → 37% +14COL 23% → 37%+14 pts
- P24:19Jake Christiansen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (2), Charlie Coyle (10)COL 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 66% → 81% +15CBJ 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P27:20Cole Sillinger Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (11), Mathieu Olivier (3)COL 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 82% → 92% +10CBJ 82% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Avalanche 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 53%
- ML COL -125 / CBJ +105
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- COL: Elo 54.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -114
- CBJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −10 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CBJ: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +30 Elo | COL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.3 | Goals scored | 2.429th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.827th of 32 |
| 10th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 11th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.8%18th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 32 |
| 26th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 15176th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321571 | Elo rating | 148918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–5 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–4 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–2 CBJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.