Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DAL went from 61% to 62% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Damon SeversonGoals1
- Kent JohnsonAssists1
- Damon SeversonPoints1
Stars- Arttu HyryGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Arttu HyryPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:59Arttu Hyry Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (3), Miro Heiskanen (8)1–3
- P36:21Damon Severson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (10), Kent Johnson (5)1–2
- P119:59Thomas Harley Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Arttu Hyry (1), Miro Heiskanen (7)0–2
- P12:16Mikko Rantanen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (8), Jason Robertson (9)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:16Mikko Rantanen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (8), Jason Robertson (9)CBJ 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 62% → 75% +13DAL 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P119:59Thomas Harley Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Arttu Hyry (1), Miro Heiskanen (7)CBJ 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 76% → 87% +12DAL 76% → 87%+12 pts
- P36:21Damon Severson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (10), Kent Johnson (5)CBJ 1 – 2 DAL · CBJ 5% → 18% +13CBJ 5% → 18%+13 pts
- P319:59Arttu Hyry Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (3), Miro Heiskanen (8)CBJ 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 100% → 100% +0DAL 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Stars 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 62%
- ML CBJ +154 / DAL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 60.4%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -165
- CBJ +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.4 – 3.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +73 Elo | DAL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 54.4%8th of 32 |
| 20th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.8%2nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 32 |
| 4th of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 18th of 321492 | Elo rating | 15346th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–7 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 3–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–3 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.