Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
COL went from 70% to 64% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 4 at 11:31 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ross ColtonGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Avalanche- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Logan O'ConnorAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:18Steven Stamkos Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (16), Ryan O'Reilly (10)3–2
- P25:08Parker Kelly Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (1), Noah Juulsen (2)2–2
- P114:34Vitali Pinchuk Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Reid Schaefer (1)2–1
- P19:11Jaden Schwartz Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (12), Brock Nelson (6)1–1
- P14:01Ross Colton Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:01Ross Colton Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (9)NSH 1 – 0 COL · NSH 36% → 51% +15NSH 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P19:11Jaden Schwartz Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (12), Brock Nelson (6)NSH 1 – 1 COL · COL 48% → 63% +16COL 48% → 63%+16 pts
- P114:34Vitali Pinchuk Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Reid Schaefer (1)NSH 2 – 1 COL · NSH 37% → 54% +17NSH 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P25:08Parker Kelly Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (1), Noah Juulsen (2)NSH 2 – 2 COL · COL 42% → 61% +19COL 42% → 61%+19 pts
- OT2:18Steven Stamkos Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (16), Ryan O'Reilly (10)NSH 3 – 2 COL · NSH 47% → 95% +48NSH 47% → 95%+48 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML NSH +170 / COL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- COL: Elo 66.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -181
- NSH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.8 – 3.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −3 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +116 Elo | COL 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 69.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 4.12nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.85th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.2% | Shot share | 52.7%10th of 32 |
| 12th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.5%23rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321522 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 32 |
| 20th of 321481 | Elo rating | 15642nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–5 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 7–5 COL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.