Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
COL went from 67% to 67% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals2
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Martin NecasPoints4
Scoring summary
- P39:45Cale Makar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (20), Martin Necas (14)0–4
- P37:15Martin Necas Goal (9) Batted, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (19), Devon Toews (11)0–3
- P212:30Nathan MacKinnon Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (16), Martin Necas (13)0–2
- P29:46Martin Necas Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: T.J. Hughes (5), Cale Makar (15)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:46Martin Necas Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: T.J. Hughes (5), Cale Makar (15)DET 0 – 1 COL · COL 63% → 80% +17COL 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P212:30Nathan MacKinnon Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (16), Martin Necas (13)DET 0 – 2 COL · COL 80% → 92% +12COL 80% → 92%+12 pts
- P37:15Martin Necas Goal (9) Batted, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (19), Devon Toews (11)DET 0 – 3 COL · COL 96% → >99% +3COL 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P39:45Cale Makar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (20), Martin Necas (14)DET 0 – 4 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Avalanche 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Fair odds
- COL -206
- DET +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.7 – 3.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −3 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +117 Elo | COL 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 67.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 4.03rd of 32 |
| 11th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 52.9%9th of 32 |
| 18th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 88.5%22nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 17th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
| 29th of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 149025th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321480 | Elo rating | 15612nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–8 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–4 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.