Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
FLA went from 63% to 64% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Michael Brandsegg-NygardGoals1
- Andrew CoppAssists2
- Justin FaulkPoints2
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists1
- Aaron EkbladPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:57Emmitt Finnie Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (10)5–3
- P316:40Sam Bennett Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (17), Brady Tkachuk (8)4–3
- P32:53Michael Brandsegg-Nygård Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (10), Andrew Copp (3)4–2
- P32:08Justin Faulk Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (2), Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (7)3–2
- P215:25Aaron Ekblad Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Garnet Hathaway (1), Lars Eller (7)2–2
- P21:26Alex DeBrincat Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (7), Justin Faulk (5)2–1
- P114:19Sam Reinhart Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (5), Sandis Vilmanis (2)1–1
- P15:26Carter Mazur Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:19Sam Reinhart Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (5), Sandis Vilmanis (2)DET 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 44% → 61% +17FLA 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P21:26Alex DeBrincat Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (7), Justin Faulk (5)DET 2 – 1 FLA · DET 40% → 58% +18DET 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P215:25Aaron Ekblad Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Garnet Hathaway (1), Lars Eller (7)DET 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 36% → 58% +22FLA 36% → 58%+22 pts
- P32:08Justin Faulk Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (2), Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (7)DET 3 – 2 FLA · DET 43% → 69% +26DET 43% → 69%+26 pts
- P32:53Michael Brandsegg-Nygård Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (10), Andrew Copp (3)DET 4 – 2 FLA · DET 70% → 88% +19DET 70% → 88%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 62%
- ML DET +154 / FLA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- FLA: Elo 61.3%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -165
- DET +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.4 – 3.1 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +4 | DET: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +80 Elo | FLA 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.8% | Shot share | 54.4%7th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.0%18th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–14th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321478 | Opponent Elo | 148528th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321479 | Elo rating | 151413th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–7 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–7 FLA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.