Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DET went from 44% to 44% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 4 at 11:31 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Trevor ConnellyGoals1
- Tomas HertlAssists1
- Trevor ConnellyPoints1
Red Wings- Anton JohanssonGoals1
- Sheldon DriesAssists1
- Anton JohanssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:18Trevor Connelly Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (16), Rasmus Andersson (4)2–1
- P34:20Braeden Bowman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (5), Victor Olofsson (2)1–1
- P32:02Anton Johansson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Mazur (3), Sheldon Dries (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P32:02Anton Johansson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Mazur (3), Sheldon Dries (1)VGK 0 – 1 DET · DET 47% → 72% +25DET 47% → 72%+25 pts
- P34:20Braeden Bowman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (5), Victor Olofsson (2)VGK 1 – 1 DET · VGK 26% → 53% +27VGK 26% → 53%+27 pts
- P318:18Trevor Connelly Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (16), Rasmus Andersson (4)VGK 2 – 1 DET · VGK 51% → 99% +48VGK 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 56%
- ML VGK -142 / DET +120
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 52.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -129
- DET +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 2.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +16 Elo | VGK 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 10th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 54.1%7th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.3%24th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 8th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 148429th of 32 |
| 8th of 321532 | Elo rating | 148221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–10 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–2 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.