Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PIT went from 50% to 51% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals2
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Tomas HertlPoints2
Penguins- Tommy NovakGoals1
- Kaedan KorczakAssists2
- Tommy NovakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:25Tomas Hertl Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (9), Jack Eichel (15)3–2
- P311:19Trevor Connelly Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (1)2–2
- P39:58Rickard Rakell Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (7), Kaedan Korczak (8)1–2
- P31:09Tommy Novak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (7), Spencer Stastney (3)1–1
- P116:36Tomas Hertl Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Mitch Marner (16), Jack Eichel (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:36Tomas Hertl Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Mitch Marner (16), Jack Eichel (14)VGK 1 – 0 PIT · VGK 49% → 66% +17VGK 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P31:09Tommy Novak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (7), Spencer Stastney (3)VGK 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 26% → 51% +24PIT 26% → 51%+24 pts
- P39:58Rickard Rakell Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (7), Kaedan Korczak (8)VGK 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 50% → 82% +31PIT 50% → 82%+31 pts
- P311:19Trevor Connelly Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (1)VGK 2 – 2 PIT · VGK 17% → 50% +33VGK 17% → 50%+33 pts
- P319:25Tomas Hertl Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (9), Jack Eichel (15)VGK 3 – 2 PIT · VGK 50% → >99% +50VGK 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Penguins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML VGK -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- VGK +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +5 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −6 | Key absences: Evgeni Malkin |
| Elo ratings | PIT +31 Elo | PIT 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.414th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.121st of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 50.2%12th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 88.2%26th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
| 27th of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 32 |
| 9th of 321529 | Elo rating | 149417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–10 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–3 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.