Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BOS went from 51% to 51% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Trevor ConnellyGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Mitch MarnerPoints2
Bruins- James HagensGoals1
- Elias LindholmAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00David Pastrnak Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P37:23Trevor Connelly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (4), Mitch Marner (15)2–2
- P214:58Mark Stone Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (4), Mitch Marner (14)1–2
- P23:23Morgan Geekie Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (7), David Pastrnak (12)0–2
- P17:23James Hagens Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (8), Nikita Zadorov (5)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:23James Hagens Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (8), Nikita Zadorov (5)VGK 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 48% → 64% +15BOS 48% → 64%+15 pts
- P23:23Morgan Geekie Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (7), David Pastrnak (12)VGK 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 67% → 82% +15BOS 67% → 82%+15 pts
- P214:58Mark Stone Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (4), Mitch Marner (14)VGK 1 – 2 BOS · VGK 14% → 30% +16VGK 14% → 30%+16 pts
- P37:23Trevor Connelly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (4), Mitch Marner (15)VGK 2 – 2 BOS · VGK 22% → 51% +29VGK 22% → 51%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 52%
- ML VGK -118 / BOS -102
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 45.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -107
- BOS +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.3 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +30 Elo | BOS 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.77th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.44th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.33rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 48.1%24th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 91.7%1st of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 8th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 6–12nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321484 | Opponent Elo | 149125th of 32 |
| 8th of 321531 | Elo rating | 152410th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–9 | 11–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–4 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–2 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.