Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
EDM went from 72% to 76% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Max SassonGoals1
- Guillaume BriseboisAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints1
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Leon DraisaitlPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:15Leon Draisaitl Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (37), Zach Hyman (1)2–4
- P317:25Brock Boeser Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (12), Elias Pettersson (15)2–3
- P34:00Leon Draisaitl Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (36), Evan Bouchard (21)1–3
- P30:49Jason Dickinson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ty Emberson (2), Mathieu Joseph (5)1–2
- P119:51Max Sasson Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (5), Guillaume Brisebois (1)1–1
- P19:14Mattias Ekholm Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (35), Leon Draisaitl (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:14Mattias Ekholm Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (35), Leon Draisaitl (18)VAN 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 74% → 85% +11EDM 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P119:51Max Sasson Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (5), Guillaume Brisebois (1)VAN 1 – 1 EDM · VAN 15% → 28% +13VAN 15% → 28%+13 pts
- P30:49Jason Dickinson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ty Emberson (2), Mathieu Joseph (5)VAN 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 65% → 85% +20EDM 65% → 85%+20 pts
- P34:00Leon Draisaitl Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (36), Evan Bouchard (21)VAN 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 86% → 96% +10EDM 86% → 96%+10 pts
- P317:25Brock Boeser Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (12), Elias Pettersson (15)VAN 2 – 3 EDM · VAN <1% → 3% +3VAN <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Oilers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 76%
- ML VAN +295 / EDM -375
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 71.9%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- EDM -312
- VAN +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.5 – 4.0 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −7 | VAN: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · EDM: Devon Levi: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +163 Elo | EDM 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 71.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 4.21st of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.6 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.7 | Margin | +1.13rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3241.2% | Shot share | 49.2%16th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3285.5% | Save percentage | 89.1%16th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Road vs home | 4–522nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 148131st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321396 | Elo rating | 15328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–10 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 10–10 EDM in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.