Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
WPG went from 67% to 66% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 4 at 11:31 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Marco RossiAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:09Brock Boeser Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jacob Quillan (1)2–6
- P311:32Mario Ferraro Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (13), Dylan DeMelo (7)1–6
- P211:36Mark Scheifele Goal (3) Poke, assists: Kyle Connor (6), Viggo Björck (1)1–5
- P26:52Neal Pionk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (5), Gabriel Vilardi (7)1–4
- P114:04Dawson Mercer Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (6), Dylan DeMelo (6)1–3
- P16:51Liam Ohgren Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (4), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (8)1–2
- P14:03Cole Koepke Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (4)0–2
- P13:49Alex Iafallo Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Haydn Fleury (2), Dawson Mercer (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:49Alex Iafallo Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Haydn Fleury (2), Dawson Mercer (7)VAN 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 65% → 78% +13WPG 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P14:03Cole Koepke Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (4)VAN 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 78% → 87% +10WPG 78% → 87%+10 pts
- P16:51Liam Ohgren Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (4), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (8)VAN 1 – 2 WPG · VAN 12% → 22% +10VAN 12% → 22%+10 pts
- P114:04Dawson Mercer Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (6), Dylan DeMelo (6)VAN 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 78% → 88% +10WPG 78% → 88%+10 pts
- P26:52Neal Pionk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (5), Gabriel Vilardi (7)VAN 1 – 4 WPG · WPG 90% → 96% +6WPG 90% → 96%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Jets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 66%
- ML VAN +180 / WPG -218
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- WPG: Elo 63.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- WPG -192
- VAN +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.8 – 3.7 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −8 | VAN: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +96 Elo | WPG 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.429th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.5 | Margin | −1.229th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3240.8% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3285.9% | Save percentage | 88.2%25th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 26th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 2–530th of 32 |
| 7th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 15232nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321400 | Elo rating | 147326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–7 WPG in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.