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Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast

TNT

Away

Maple Leafs

8-10-2

52%

at

Home

Blackhawks

4-13-1

48%

The pick
TOR · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
3–3
Fair odds
-108

Your pick

United Center · TNT

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Maple Leafs 52%). It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Maple Leafs rate higher (1468 to 1403 Elo) and the Blackhawks have home ice.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Maple Leafs

Now 14%

16%

with a win

12%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

Blackhawks

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Maple Leafs 52%

Toss-up
TOR 52%CHI 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
TOR 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR 54%
Fair odds
TOR -108
CHI +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
TOR 3.2 – 3.1 CHI
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORCHIWhy
Team rating14681403Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−6−2TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +26 EloTOR 53.8%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 51.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 52.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Toronto Maple Leafs and Chicago Blackhawks compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatCHI
13th of 323.4Goals scored2.232nd of 32
24th of 323.5Goals allowed4.231st of 32
20th of 32−0.1Margin−2.132nd of 32
20th of 3248.7%Shot share42.8%31st of 32
18th of 3289.1%Save percentage87.2%29th of 32
21st of 324–6Last 101–931st of 32
11th of 324–4Road vs home4–523rd of 32
12th of 321502Opponent Elo15231st of 32
27th of 321468Elo rating140331st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Maple LeafsBlackhawks
13501400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Maple Leafs

10 listed

  • Morgan Rielly D

    Out

    Rielly (lower body) has been deemed day-to-day and will not play in Tuesday's home clash against the Avalanche, per David Alter of The Hockey News.

  • Colton Sissons C

    Out

    out

  • Kirill Marchenko RW

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Miles Wood LW

    Injured Reserve

    Wood (undisclosed) was transferred to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.

  • Nick Blankenburg D

    Injured Reserve

    Blankenburg (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Maple Leafs on Friday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.

  • Marshall Rifai D

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Max Domi C

    Injured Reserve

    Domi (back) was transferred from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per PuckPedia.

  • Cade Webber D

    Injured Reserve

    ir-nr

  • Elvis Merzlikins G

    Injured Reserve

    Merzlikins is expected to miss 4-6 months to begin the 2026-27 regular season while recovering from a shoulder injury, per Luke Fox of Sportsnet.

  • William Villeneuve D

    Injured Reserve

    ir-nr

Blackhawks

2 listed

  • Patrick Kane RW

    Injured Reserve

    Kane (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Sunday.

  • Bowen Byram D

    Injured Reserve

    Byram (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORCHI
Puck line9–107–10
Last 106–44–6
Favorite2–8—
Underdog7–27–10
Overs–unders11–89–8
Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 3–3 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.