Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
FLA went from 70% to 69% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 1:05 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Frank NazarGoals2
- Ethan Del MastroAssists2
- Frank NazarPoints2
Panthers- Sandis VilmanisGoals2
- Sandis VilmanisAssists2
- Sandis VilmanisPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:33Sam Reinhart Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sandis Vilmanis (4)3–5
- P316:09Frank Nazar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Rinzel (3), Connor Bedard (8)3–4
- P311:01Sandis Vilmanis Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: none2–4
- P39:31Frank Nazar Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Cole Smith (2), Ethan Del Mastro (2)2–3
- P216:48Roman Kantserov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ethan Del Mastro (1), Connor Bedard (7)1–3
- P213:20Seth Jones Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sandis Vilmanis (3), Sam Reinhart (7)0–3
- P112:29Carter Verhaeghe Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (9), Matthew Tkachuk (18)0–2
- P14:43Sandis Vilmanis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (6), Carter Verhaeghe (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:43Sandis Vilmanis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (6), Carter Verhaeghe (6)CHI 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 68% → 80% +12FLA 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P112:29Carter Verhaeghe Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (9), Matthew Tkachuk (18)CHI 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 80% → 89% +9FLA 80% → 89%+9 pts
- P39:31Frank Nazar Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Cole Smith (2), Ethan Del Mastro (2)CHI 2 – 3 FLA · CHI 3% → 14% +12CHI 3% → 14%+12 pts
- P311:01Sandis Vilmanis Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: noneCHI 2 – 4 FLA · FLA 87% → 98% +11FLA 87% → 98%+11 pts
- P316:09Frank Nazar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Rinzel (3), Connor Bedard (8)CHI 3 – 4 FLA · CHI <1% → 6% +6CHI <1% → 6%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Panthers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 69%
- ML CHI +205 / FLA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- FLA: Elo 68.4%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- FLA -218
- CHI +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.2 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +134 Elo | FLA 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 69.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.2 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.7 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 31st of 3243.2% | Shot share | 54.0%7th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 88.7%17th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–6 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 32 |
| 6th of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 148529th of 32 |
| 31st of 321410 | Elo rating | 150914th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–5 FLA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.