Chicago Blackhawks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CAR went from 77% to 77% over 4 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Alex VlasicAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints2
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals2
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:47Andrei Svechnikov Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (16)2–9
- P316:18Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (1), Logan Stankoven (7)2–8
- P313:41Connor Bedard Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (4)2–7
- P35:56Roman Kantserov Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (9), Alex Vlasic (3)1–7
- P218:06Alexander Nikishin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (11), Sebastian Aho (15)0–7
- P210:36Sebastian Aho Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (7), William Carrier (11)0–6
- P24:43Andrei Svechnikov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (10)0–5
- P119:27Jordan Martinook Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (5), Eric Robinson (7)0–4
- P110:54Jordan Martinook Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4), Eric Robinson (6)0–3
- P13:21Jackson Blake Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (11)0–2
- P11:34Seth Jarvis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (5), Taylor Hall (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:34Seth Jarvis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (5), Taylor Hall (3)CHI 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 77% → 87% +10CAR 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P13:21Jackson Blake Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (11)CHI 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 86% → 93% +7CAR 86% → 93%+7 pts
- P110:54Jordan Martinook Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4), Eric Robinson (6)CHI 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 93% → 97% +4CAR 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P119:27Jordan Martinook Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (5), Eric Robinson (7)CHI 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 97% → >99% +2CAR 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P24:43Andrei Svechnikov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (10)CHI 0 – 5 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +1CAR >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Hurricanes 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 79%
- Fair odds
- CAR -339
- CHI +339 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.3 – 4.0 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +227 Elo | CAR 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 76.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 77.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.2 | Goals scored | 3.83rd of 32 |
| 31st of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 2.44th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.8 | Margin | +1.41st of 32 |
| 31st of 3243.1% | Shot share | 59.6%1st of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%9th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–8 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 32 |
| 5th of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 148132nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321406 | Elo rating | 15971st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–10 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | — |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–6 CAR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.