Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
TB went from 79% to 77% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 4 at 11:31 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Roman KantserovGoals1
- Ethan Del MastroAssists1
- Roman KantserovPoints1
Lightning- Ilya MikheyevGoals2
- Erik CernakAssists2
- Ilya MikheyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:10Roman Kantserov Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Sam Rinzel (4), Ethan Del Mastro (3)1–4
- P35:08Ilya Mikheyev Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Erik Cernak (5), Zemgus Girgensons (2)0–4
- P32:38Ryan McDonagh Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (7), Brayden Point (9)0–3
- P118:22Ilya Mikheyev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (4), Pontus Holmberg (7)0–2
- P14:12Victor Hedman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (5), Brandon Hagel (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:12Victor Hedman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (5), Brandon Hagel (9)CHI 0 – 1 TB · TB 76% → 86% +10TB 76% → 86%+10 pts
- P118:22Ilya Mikheyev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (4), Pontus Holmberg (7)CHI 0 – 2 TB · TB 85% → 93% +8TB 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P32:38Ryan McDonagh Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (7), Brayden Point (9)CHI 0 – 3 TB · TB 96% → >99% +3TB 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P35:08Ilya Mikheyev Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Erik Cernak (5), Zemgus Girgensons (2)CHI 0 – 4 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:10Roman Kantserov Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Sam Rinzel (4), Ethan Del Mastro (3)CHI 1 – 4 TB · CHI 0% → 0% +0CHI 0% → 0%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lightning 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- TB 77%
- ML CHI +310 / TB -395
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- TB: Elo 78.7%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -327
- CHI +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +2 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −1 | Key absences: Zemgus Girgensons |
| Elo ratings | TB +227 Elo | TB 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 78.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 78.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.74th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 31st of 3243.1% | Shot share | 54.9%4th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 88.0%28th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–7 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 32 |
| 6th of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321407 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–9 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–3 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.