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Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

ESPN+, MINNHL

Away

Wild

13-3-4

59%

at

Home

Maple Leafs

8-10-2

41%

The pick
MIN · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
3–3
Fair odds
-146

Your pick

Scotiabank Arena · ESPN+, MINNHL

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Wild at 59%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Wild rate higher (1552 to 1468 Elo) and the Maple Leafs have home ice.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Wild

Now 95%

96%

with a win

93%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

Maple Leafs

Now 14%

17%

with a win

12%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

How the forecast moved

TOR went from 43% to 41% over 4 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (TOR win chance) Betting line, margin removed
35%43%50%Sun 7 PMMon 10 PMWed 12 AM

The pick

Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Wild 59%

Lean
MIN 59%TOR 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MIN 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN 59%
Fair odds
MIN -146
TOR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
MIN 3.5 – 2.9 TOR
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMINTORWhy
Team rating15521468Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+9−6MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIN +64 EloMIN 59.1%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 59.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 59.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Minnesota Wild and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
MINStatTOR
14th of 323.3Goals scored3.413th of 32
1st of 322.2Goals allowed3.524th of 32
4th of 32+1.0Margin−0.120th of 32
5th of 3253.3%Shot share48.7%20th of 32
2nd of 3291.5%Save percentage89.1%18th of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 104–621st of 32
5th of 328–5Road vs home4–829th of 32
14th of 321499Opponent Elo150212th of 32
4th of 321552Elo rating146827th of 32

Player props

Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.

Your parlay →
PlayerProjLineOverParlay
Quinn HughesMIN1.2—— No line
Kirill KaprizovMIN1.2—— No line
Matt BoldyMIN1.0—— No line
William NylanderTOR0.9—— No line
Auston MatthewsTOR0.9—— No line
Joel Eriksson EkMIN0.7—— No line
Darren RaddyshTOR0.6—— No line
John TavaresTOR0.6—— No line
Jack RoslovicTOR0.6—— No line
Gavin McKennaTOR0.5—— No line
Easton CowanTOR0.5—— No line
Maxim ShabanovMIN0.5—— No line
Blake ColemanMIN0.5—— No line
Bobby BrinkMIN0.4—— No line
Danila YurovMIN0.4—— No line
Ryan HartmanMIN0.4—— No line
Jonas BrodinMIN0.4—— No line
Nick PaulTOR0.3—— No line
Olli MaattaMIN0.3—— No line
Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR0.3—— No line
Jared SpurgeonMIN0.3—— No line
Michael McCarronMIN0.3—— No line
Teddy BluegerTOR0.3—— No line
Jake McCabeTOR0.3—— No line
Dakota JoshuaTOR0.3—— No line
Nico SturmMIN0.2—— No line
Marcus FolignoMIN0.2—— No line
Yakov TreninMIN0.2—— No line
Ryan TverbergTOR0.2—— No line
Troy StecherTOR0.2—— No line
Matt KierstedMIN0.2—— No line
Chris TanevTOR0.2—— No line
Brandon DuhaimeTOR0.2—— No line
Zach BogosianMIN0.2—— No line
Cole McWardTOR0.2—— No line
David SpacekMIN0.2—— No line
Dakota MermisTOR0.1—— No line

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

WildMaple Leafs
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Wild

2 listed

  • Filip Gustavsson G

    Injured Reserve

    Gustavsson (hip) will travel with the Wild during the team's upcoming three-game road trip, per Joe Smith of The Athletic.

  • Brock Faber D

    Injured Reserve

    Faber (skull) skated with his teammates for the first time Thursday, Joe Smith of The Athletic reports.

Maple Leafs

10 listed

  • Morgan Rielly D

    Out

    Rielly (lower body) has been deemed day-to-day and will not play in Tuesday's home clash against the Avalanche, per David Alter of The Hockey News.

  • Colton Sissons C

    Out

    out

  • Kirill Marchenko RW

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Miles Wood LW

    Injured Reserve

    Wood (undisclosed) was transferred to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.

  • Nick Blankenburg D

    Injured Reserve

    Blankenburg (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Maple Leafs on Friday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.

  • Marshall Rifai D

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Max Domi C

    Injured Reserve

    Domi (back) was transferred from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per PuckPedia.

  • Cade Webber D

    Injured Reserve

    ir-nr

  • Elvis Merzlikins G

    Injured Reserve

    Merzlikins is expected to miss 4-6 months to begin the 2026-27 regular season while recovering from a shoulder injury, per Luke Fox of Sportsnet.

  • William Villeneuve D

    Injured Reserve

    ir-nr

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMINTOR
Puck line12–79–10
Last 107–36–4
Favorite8–72–8
Underdog4–07–2
Overs–unders6–1311–8
Overs–unders, last 103–76–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIN 3–3 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.