San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIN went from 73% to 69% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, November 6 at 12:02 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Dmitry OrlovAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints1
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists3
- Kirill KaprizovPoints4
Scoring summary
- P313:58Zach Bogosian Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (10), Kirill Kaprizov (14)1–4
- P36:54Quinn Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (13), Jonas Brodin (7)1–3
- P214:15Maxim Shabanov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (12), Quinn Hughes (19)1–2
- P212:11Macklin Celebrini Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (7), Will Smith (5)1–1
- P17:55Kirill Kaprizov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (18), Matt Boldy (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:55Kirill Kaprizov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (18), Matt Boldy (10)SJ 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 68% → 80% +13MIN 68% → 80%+13 pts
- P212:11Macklin Celebrini Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (7), Will Smith (5)SJ 1 – 1 MIN · SJ 19% → 37% +18SJ 19% → 37%+18 pts
- P214:15Maxim Shabanov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (12), Quinn Hughes (19)SJ 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 63% → 81% +18MIN 63% → 81%+18 pts
- P36:54Quinn Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (13), Jonas Brodin (7)SJ 1 – 3 MIN · MIN 84% → 96% +12MIN 84% → 96%+12 pts
- P313:58Zach Bogosian Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (10), Kirill Kaprizov (14)SJ 1 – 4 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +1MIN >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Wild 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 69%
- ML SJ +210 / MIN -258
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 71.8%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -223
- SJ +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +6 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +162 Elo | MIN 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 72.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.21st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +1.14th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.1%2nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 17th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 32 |
| 14th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 32 |
| 30th of 321438 | Elo rating | 15504th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–11 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–6 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.