Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
WSH went from 47% to 50% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Michael McCarronGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists2
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints2
Capitals- Justin SourdifGoals1
- Cole HutsonAssists1
- Justin SourdifPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:35Danila Yurov Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: David Spacek (1), Bobby Brink (7)5–1
- P319:02Kirill Kaprizov Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (8), Joel Eriksson Ek (9)4–1
- P317:37Maxim Shabanov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (8)3–1
- P219:54Justin Sourdif Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cole Hutson (4), Anthony Beauvillier (2)2–1
- P15:27Michael McCarron Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (2), Bobby Brink (6)2–0
- P13:42Quinn Hughes Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (5), Nico Sturm (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:42Quinn Hughes Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (5), Nico Sturm (2)MIN 1 – 0 WSH · MIN 50% → 64% +15MIN 50% → 64%+15 pts
- P15:27Michael McCarron Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (2), Bobby Brink (6)MIN 2 – 0 WSH · MIN 65% → 77% +13MIN 65% → 77%+13 pts
- P219:54Justin Sourdif Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cole Hutson (4), Anthony Beauvillier (2)MIN 2 – 1 WSH · WSH 10% → 27% +16WSH 10% → 27%+16 pts
- P317:37Maxim Shabanov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (8)MIN 3 – 1 WSH · MIN 97% → >99% +3MIN 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P319:02Kirill Kaprizov Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (8), Joel Eriksson Ek (9)MIN 4 – 1 WSH · MIN >99% → 100% +0MIN >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Capitals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML MIN -108 / WSH -112
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.1%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -102
- MIN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Vincent Desharnais |
| Elo ratings | WSH +22 Elo | WSH 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.69th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 4th of 3255.2% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.8%8th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 7th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
| 19th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15165th of 32 |
| 4th of 321541 | Elo rating | 152910th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–6 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–10 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–2 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.