Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SJ went from 55% to 56% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Adam KlapkaGoals1
- Jonathan CastagnaAssists2
- Adam KlapkaPoints2
Sharks- Sam DickinsonGoals1
- Jacob TroubaAssists1
- Sam DickinsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:57Sam Dickinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Misa (5), Jacob Trouba (8)2–1
- P39:14William Stromgren Goal (1) Batted, assists: Adam Klapka (3), Jonathan Castagna (3)2–0
- P114:36Adam Klapka Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Castagna (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:36Adam Klapka Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Castagna (2)CGY 1 – 0 SJ · CGY 47% → 64% +16CGY 47% → 64%+16 pts
- P39:14William Stromgren Goal (1) Batted, assists: Adam Klapka (3), Jonathan Castagna (3)CGY 2 – 0 SJ · CGY 80% → 95% +16CGY 80% → 95%+16 pts
- P311:57Sam Dickinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Misa (5), Jacob Trouba (8)CGY 2 – 1 SJ · SJ 2% → 17% +14SJ 2% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 53%
- ML CGY +105 / SJ -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SJ: Elo 52.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SJ -114
- CGY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.2 – 3.3 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −9 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +19 Elo | SJ 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−1.1 | Margin | −0.726th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 46.7%28th of 32 |
| 27th of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 90.0%6th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 28th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 3–427th of 32 |
| 11th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 32 |
| 29th of 321457 | Elo rating | 144530th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 9–2 SJ in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.