San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LA went from 63% to 58% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 1:05 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Dmitry OrlovAssists2
- Dmitry OrlovPoints2
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals3
- Artemi PanarinAssists4
- Adrian KempePoints4
Scoring summary
- P314:28Quinton Byfield Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (9), Erik Gustafsson (4)2–7
- P39:41Ivar Stenberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (6), Michael Misa (7)2–6
- P32:12Joel Armia Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Erik Haula (4)1–6
- P215:51Adrian Kempe Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (8), Artemi Panarin (8)1–5
- P211:10Erik Haula Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Kenny Connors (1), Brian Dumoulin (2)1–4
- P25:07Macklin Celebrini Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (5), Michael Misa (6)1–3
- P118:38Quinton Byfield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (7), Adrian Kempe (6)0–3
- P116:09Adrian Kempe Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (3), Brandt Clarke (8)0–2
- P11:23Adrian Kempe Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (6), Drew Doughty (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:23Adrian Kempe Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (6), Drew Doughty (7)SJ 0 – 1 LA · LA 58% → 72% +14LA 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P116:09Adrian Kempe Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (3), Brandt Clarke (8)SJ 0 – 2 LA · LA 73% → 85% +12LA 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P118:38Quinton Byfield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (7), Adrian Kempe (6)SJ 0 – 3 LA · LA 85% → 93% +8LA 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P25:07Macklin Celebrini Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (5), Michael Misa (6)SJ 1 – 3 LA · SJ 6% → 13% +8SJ 6% → 13%+8 pts
- P211:10Erik Haula Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Kenny Connors (1), Brian Dumoulin (2)SJ 1 – 4 LA · LA 88% → 96% +7LA 88% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 58%
- ML SJ +130 / LA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- LA: Elo 59.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -140
- SJ +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.5 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −4 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +66 Elo | LA 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.726th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.1% | Shot share | 49.8%14th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.7%17th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 8th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 1–431st of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 32 |
| 30th of 321442 | Elo rating | 147027th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–10 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 6–6 LA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.