Buffalo Sabres at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LA went from 52% to 46% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals2
- Rasmus DahlinAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Kings- Andre LeeGoals1
- Joel ArmiaAssists1
- Corey PerryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:40Tage Thompson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (6), Rasmus Dahlin (7)3–2
- P31:29Andre Lee Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Scott Laughton (3), Joel Armia (3)2–2
- P217:24Corey Perry Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Trevor Moore (3), Brandt Clarke (7)2–1
- P215:38Tage Thompson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (11), Mattias Samuelsson (7)2–0
- P16:35Jack Quinn Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (10), Rasmus Dahlin (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:35Jack Quinn Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (10), Rasmus Dahlin (6)BUF 1 – 0 LA · BUF 54% → 69% +15BUF 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P215:38Tage Thompson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (11), Mattias Samuelsson (7)BUF 2 – 0 LA · BUF 74% → 89% +15BUF 74% → 89%+15 pts
- P217:24Corey Perry Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Trevor Moore (3), Brandt Clarke (7)BUF 2 – 1 LA · LA 10% → 25% +15LA 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P31:29Andre Lee Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Scott Laughton (3), Joel Armia (3)BUF 2 – 2 LA · LA 24% → 48% +24LA 24% → 48%+24 pts
- P313:40Tage Thompson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (6), Rasmus Dahlin (7)BUF 3 – 2 LA · BUF 51% → 88% +36BUF 51% → 88%+36 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 54%
- ML BUF -130 / LA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- BUF: Elo 53.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -119
- LA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 2.6 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −3 | BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +24 Elo | BUF 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.726th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 49.9%14th of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.1% | Save percentage | 88.6%23rd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 15th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 1–329th of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 32 |
| 10th of 321528 | Elo rating | 147326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 5–1 LA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.