Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHI went from 40% to 38% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists1
- Matt BoldyPoints2
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Jamie DrysdaleAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:36Danila Yurov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (11), Olli Maatta (3)4–2
- P31:48Denver Barkey Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Porter Martone (5), Trevor Zegras (10)3–2
- P214:24Tyson Foerster Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jamie Drysdale (6), Matvei Michkov (3)3–1
- P20:42Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (9)3–0
- P14:37Michael McCarron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (3), Bobby Brink (8)2–0
- P14:06Matt Boldy Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (17), Jonas Brodin (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:06Matt Boldy Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (17), Jonas Brodin (6)MIN 1 – 0 PHI · MIN 62% → 75% +13MIN 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P14:37Michael McCarron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (3), Bobby Brink (8)MIN 2 – 0 PHI · MIN 75% → 86% +10MIN 75% → 86%+10 pts
- P20:42Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (9)MIN 3 – 0 PHI · MIN 88% → 95% +7MIN 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P214:24Tyson Foerster Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jamie Drysdale (6), Matvei Michkov (3)MIN 3 – 1 PHI · PHI 3% → 9% +6PHI 3% → 9%+6 pts
- P31:48Denver Barkey Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Porter Martone (5), Trevor Zegras (10)MIN 3 – 2 PHI · PHI 7% → 20% +13PHI 7% → 20%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Wild 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML MIN -185 / PHI +154
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -165
- PHI +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 2.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +8 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +31 Elo | MIN 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.232nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −1.229th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.9% | Shot share | 43.9%30th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.2%16th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 3–628th of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15232nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321546 | Elo rating | 147823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–6 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–11 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–5 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.