Minnesota Wild at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MTL went from 50% to 47% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 9 at 10:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Bobby BrinkGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints1
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:21Kirill Kaprizov Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (11), Quinn Hughes (21)2–1
- P318:22Nick Suzuki Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (6), Lane Hutson (15)1–1
- P32:53Bobby Brink Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P32:53Bobby Brink Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneMIN 1 – 0 MTL · MIN 52% → 77% +25MIN 52% → 77%+25 pts
- P318:22Nick Suzuki Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (6), Lane Hutson (15)MIN 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 1% → 49% +48MTL 1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT0:21Kirill Kaprizov Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (11), Quinn Hughes (21)MIN 2 – 1 MTL · MIN 51% → 91% +40MIN 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / MTL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- MTL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +7 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −1 | −5 | Key absences: Mike Matheson, Jake Evans, Josh Anderson |
| Elo ratings | MTL +18 Elo | MTL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.68th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 49.4%16th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%12th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 7th of 327–5 | Road vs home | 5–418th of 32 |
| 18th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 32 |
| 4th of 321550 | Elo rating | 15387th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–6 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–12 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–1 MTL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.